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Bilal Siddika


  • Data Vizdom: Tariffs

    Data Vizdom: Tariffs




    Event

    Data Vizdom: Tariffs

    What better way to understand concepts big and small than through data visualizations? In this blog series, we bring you a collection of visuals on events, academic theories, and insights around economics and transportation, especially — but not exclusively — from academia and news organizations. Join us to explore and engage with interesting and insightful data visualizations from creators around the world.

    This week’s Data Vizdom sheds light on the unintended consequences of tariffs — a tax imposed on imports of foreign-made goods — on the home country’s economy and the ongoing trade war between the US and China.

    While tariffs have fallen out of favor in high-income countries due to their impact on trade, prices of goods, and the risk of spiraling foreign retaliation, lower-income countries still use them for the short-term benefits they generate as a direct source of income. However, studies have shown that tariffs have negative long-term impacts on output and productivity.

    Tariffs are ineffective as well as counterproductive – The Economist (January 15, 2019)

    The direct impact of tariffs on output is overshadowed by the uncertainty they create when trading partners engage in retaliatory tariffs, leading to trade wars.

    Uncertainty Shock Dwarfs the Direct Impact of Tariffs – Bloomberg (August 19, 2019)

    While in theory, the cost of tariffs is borne by the importer, in practice, these costs are passed down to consumers. As a proportion of a consumer’s income, tariffs hit the poorest the hardest.

    How Much Will the Trade War Cost You by the End of the Year? – The New York Times (September 1, 2019)

    The US and China have been engaged in a trade war since Trump imposed tariffs in January 2018. What started as an effort to address the trade deficit between two of the world’s largest economies has continued under Biden, who has also accused China of unfairly favouring their domestic industries.

    US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart – Peterson Institute for International Economics (April 6, 2023)

    While tensions are currently flaring up again with the US and EU imposing tariffs on Chinese EVs, overall US tariffs remain low.

    What Are Tariffs? – Council on Foreign Relations (June 21, 2024)

    Help us make this series even better! We would love to hear about sources we should follow to discover interesting projects and visualizations. Write to Bilal Siddika on LinkedIn or via email.

    Speaker(s)

    • Aïchata S. Koné

      CIRANO & GVCdtLab

    • Thierry Warin

      HEC Montréal, CIRANO, GVCdtLab & Digital Data Design (D^3) Institute at Harvard Business School

  • Data Vizdom: Arctic’s melting trade routes

    Data Vizdom: Arctic’s melting trade routes




    Event

    Data Vizdom: Arctic’s melting trade routes

    What better way to understand concepts big and small than through data visualizations? In this blog series, we bring you a collection of visuals on events, academic theories, and insights around economics and transportation, especially — but not exclusively — from academia and news organizations. Join us to explore and engage with interesting and insightful data visualizations from creators around the world.

    The fourth edition of Data Vizdom explores the flip side of climate change on maritime trade routes: the creation of new shipping routes through areas that were once unnavigable because of ice.

    The Arctic’s ice cover has been slowly declining, but over the past few years, this recession has accelerated. The coverage of multi-year ice, which is more resistant to melting, has decreased, being replaced by younger ice that melts during the summer months.

    Animation shows severity of Arctic sea ice recession in 2020 – The Washington Post (September 22, 2020)

    The warming of the Earth is expected to be uneven, with projected temperatures between 2040 and 2060 being disproportionately large in the Arctic. Viewing this rise in temperature as an elevation map helps to understand how it will further negatively impact the ice coverage in the Arctic Ocean over the coming decades.

    Arctic – Woodwell Climate Research (n.d.)

    This means that the Arctic, once unimaginable for conventional ships such as those carrying oil and containers to sail through, would become accessible during the summer months. During the colder months, with thinner ice formation, ice-breaking ships (aka icebreakers) could carve out routes for other vessels.

    Russia already uses the Northern Sea Route, deploying icebreakers to keep it navigable for ships traveling between Europe and Asia. The Northwest Passage, running along Canada’s coast, is currently less frequently used.

    Dark Arctic – Reuters (November 16, 2022)

    With ever-decreasing ice formation, it is only a matter of time before the Northwest Passage sees more traffic, as it cuts the distance for ships currently plying through the Panama Canal. Similarly, the Northern Sea Route significantly reduces the distance compared to the Suez Canal. According to current predictions, icebreakers are expected to sail straight through the North Pole, with conventional ships being able to do so in the coming decades. When this happens, the Bering Strait will become a major chokepoint for trade.

    As Arctic Ice Vanishes, New Shipping Routes Open – The New York Times (May 3, 2017)

    Closer to home, the Great Lakes experienced their lowest levels of ice in over 50 years this past winter. Although extremely alarming, if this trend continues, the lakes may become navigable for ships year-round, making maritime shipping more attractive for businesses in the region.

    Ice cover in North America’s Great Lakes hits lowest level for 50 years – Financial Times (January 5, 2024)

    Help us make this series even better! We would love to hear about sources we should follow to discover interesting projects and visualizations. Write to Bilal Siddika on LinkedIn or via email.

    Speaker(s)

    • Aïchata S. Koné

      CIRANO & GVCdtLab

    • Thierry Warin

      HEC Montréal, CIRANO, GVCdtLab & Digital Data Design (D^3) Institute at Harvard Business School

  • Data Vizdom: Panama Canal’s drying trade

    Data Vizdom: Panama Canal’s drying trade




    Event

    Data Vizdom: Panama Canal’s drying trade

    What better way to understand concepts big and small than through data visualizations? In this blog series, we bring you a collection of visuals on events, academic theories, and insights around economics and transportation, especially — but not exclusively — from academia and news organizations. Join us to explore and engage with interesting and insightful data visualizations from creators around the world.

    The third edition of Data Vizdom looks at the effects climate change has had on the water levels at Panama Canal, an important trade route connecting the Atlantic with the Pacific.

    Ships moving through the canal transport critical goods to and from Asia, the Americas and beyond. The route through the canal is essential for global trade, ensuring the efficient delivery of raw materials, manufactured goods and other vital supplies across continents.

    Panama Canal Traffic by Shipment Category and Tonnage – Visual Capitalist (February 4, 2024)

    Ships traverse the canal by passing through the artificially created Gatun Lake, which was formed by damming the Chagres River. The water levels of the lake are critical for unrestricted access to the canal.

    Panama Canal Drought Slows Cargo Traffic – The New York Times (January 25, 2024)

    However, in recent years, the water levels of Gatun Lake have plummeted due to drought. What is more worrying is that sporadic rainfall has prevented the water levels from recovering after the dry season. In 2024, exacerbated by El Niño, the lake’s water levels are especially low, starting at their lowest recorded levels.

    Panama Canal traffic recovers from drought caused by El Niño, study finds – Financial Times (May 4, 2024)

    The low water levels have had a direct impact on the number of ships passing through the canal, slowing down trade. The restriction in access has also caused a traffic buildup at the canal’s entrances.

    Drought in Panama is disrupting global shipping. These 7 graphics show how. – Woodwell Climate Research Center (February 20, 2024)

    The alternative routes for ships, necessitated by restrictions at the canal, will have major repercussions for global trade. Traffic will have to be diverted to other important corridors, stressing their capacities. Additionally, the increased travel distances will further impact the climate and cause delays similar to those from the ongoing Red Sea crisis.

    How could Panama Canal restrictions affect supply chains. – McKinsey & Company (January 19, 2024)

    The economic impact of a week-long disruption at the Panama Canal is estimated to send ripples across the world.

    Help us make this series even better! We would love to hear about sources we should follow to discover interesting projects and visualizations. Write to Bilal Siddika on LinkedIn or via email.

    Speaker(s)

    • Aïchata S. Koné

      CIRANO & GVCdtLab

    • Thierry Warin

      HEC Montréal, CIRANO, GVCdtLab & Digital Data Design (D^3) Institute at Harvard Business School

  • Exploring Quebec’s aerospace industry

    Exploring Quebec’s aerospace industry

    Event

    Exploring Quebec’s aerospace industry

    The aerospace industry in Quebec is a major workhorse, accounting for over 50% of Canada’s production, with sales of $15.3 billion in 20181. The industry’s employment is also concentrated in Quebec, representing about 60% of the Canadian total2. The performance of the industry can be explained by the presence of major local and international players in the Greater Montreal region. These firms engage in activities throughout the aerospace supply chain, making it a competitive global cluster, rivalling Seattle and Toulouse. In fact, the concentration of firms has resulted in unique competencies in technologies related to decarbonization, autonomous aircraft and safety3.

    Leveraging these innovations, the Government of Quebec has declared the Greater Montreal region as an innovation zone. Named Espace Aéro, the zone comprises of three poles in Montreal, Longueuil and Mirabel. Furthermore, the government has announced an initial investment of $85 million out of a larger industry-led investment of $415 million in the industry. Of this, nearly $240 million comes from Boeing, wanting to establish its presence alongside Bombardier and Airbus4. A common thread in these investments is that they are earmarked for research and development to further the region’s competencies. Within the wider innovation ecosystem, the region’s universities and research centres also play a crucial role.

    This highlight seeks to examine the aerospace industry in Quebec using data from the Registre des entreprises du Québec (REQ). This dataset provides near real-time information on firms, including the number of employees, domicile address, primary and secondary industrial classification, description of activities, and location of establishments.

    We begin by identifying firms (having more than 1 employee) that were active during 2022 with a primary or secondary industrial classification of 3211 (Industrie des aéronefs et des pièces d’aéronefs). This results in 179 firms, which is lower than the 262 firms identified by Montréal International. This discrepancy can be attributed to the limitation of relying on industrial codes and excluding firms with no employees. For example, Thales Canada Inc., a major designer and integrator of avionics suites and vision systems, has operations in Montreal. However, its industry classification in the REQ is 9799 (Autres services personnels et domestiques), which falls outside the selection criteria.

    These firms are then categorized based on the number of their employees into Micro, Small and Medium (SME), and Large enterprises. Mapping these firms, we can see that the industry is clearly concentrated in the Greater Montreal region. Furthermore, most of the SMEs and large enterprises are also located here.


    To better understand the role played by each firm in the industry, we need to identify their activities and its position in the aerospace industry's supply chain. For most of the firms, an indication of the activities undertaken can be extracted from the description provided in the REQ. These activities are then used to assign firms to a specific stage in the supply chain.

    The aerospace supply chain is globally dispersed with significant inter-firm collaboration at different levels of the supply chain. With the product life cycle in the industry spanning several decades, firms that produce aircrafts (OEMs) enter into partnerships with their suppliers to leverage their specialized technological expertise, freeing up their resources to focus on other stages of the supply chain. These suppliers produce and assemble components and sub-components required to manufacture aircrafts. Finally, firms that provide technical consulting and maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) services are also integral to the industry's supply chain.

    The following interactive chart illustrates the stages in the aerospace industry's supply chain. Hover over each stage to get a more detailed account of the activities undertaken by constituent firms.


    The following map provides a closer look at the concentration of firms in the Greater Montreal region. In addition to the features outlined in the previous map, hovering over a firm reveals its address, number of employees, position in the supply chain and a description of its activities. The airports in Montreal, Mirabel and Longueuil are also mapped to highlight the proximity of this industry to these assets. Examining the geographic spread of these firms, we can see that the large enterprises and SMEs are mostly located within the three poles of the Espace Aéro. In terms of their position in the supply chain, a majority of these firms are Tier 1, 2 and 3 suppliers. Finally, the smallest firms in the industry are scattered around the larger firms and mostly provide technical services to them.

    The classification of firms to a specific stage of the supply chain was done in two steps: first by feeding the firm name and description into ChatGPT, and then by manually refining the results to ensure consistency.


    In conclusion, Quebec's aerospace industry plays a pivotal role in Canada's economy and global competitiveness. Using the description of activities from the REQ allows for a closer analysis of the industry from a supply chain perspective, offering valuable insight into its structure and dynamics. These insights support policymakers and industry leaders in making strategic investments to drive further growth and sustainability, capitalizing on the industry's unique competencies in decarbonization and autonomous aircraft.


    References

    1. Investissement Québec (n.d.)

    2. State of Canada's Aerospace Industry Report (2023)

    3. Gouvernement du Québec (2024)

    4. Gouvernement du Québec (2024)

    Speaker(s)

    • Aïchata S. Koné

      CIRANO & GVCdtLab

    • Thierry Warin

      HEC Montréal, CIRANO, GVCdtLab & Digital Data Design (D^3) Institute at Harvard Business School

  • Data Vizdom: Red Sea crisis (Part 2)

    Data Vizdom: Red Sea crisis (Part 2)




    Event

    Data Vizdom: Red Sea crisis (Part 2)

    What better way to understand concepts big and small than through data visualizations? In this blog series, we bring you a collection of visuals on events, academic theories, and insights around economics and transportation, especially — but not exclusively — from academia and news organizations. Join us to explore and engage with interesting and insightful data visualizations from creators around the world.

    This week’s Data Vizdom continues from where we left off, examining the ongoing conflict in the Red Sea and its effects on maritime traffic, delays, and shipping costs.

    Data on ship movements show the extent of change the Red Sea blockade has caused on maritime shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb strait from December 2023 to February 2024.

    Navigating Troubled Waters – UNCTAD (February 2024)

    The drop in traffic transiting through the Suez Canal and the rise in traffic transiting through the Cape of Good Hope is roughly about the same.

    The mounting strains on global shipping – Financial Times (May 28, 2024)

    The delays caused by this blockade has had a cascading effect on ship arrivals and port congestion, aggravating delays beyond the additional ten days attributable to the re-routing.

    Escalating emissions – Reuters (May 28, 2024)

    The disruption in maritime shipping and congestion at ports have created a supply crunch for maritime freight in the market. This has caused a reversal in the post-pandemic recovery of shipping prices.

    With demand for goods picking up in the US and Europe, shipping companies have had to change their stock strategy to accommodate the longer lead times and uncertainty.

    Trade Strains Boost Cargo Rates at Pace Recalling Covid ‘Chaos’ – Bloomberg (May 27, 2024)

    Help us make this series even better! We would love to hear about sources we should follow to discover interesting projects and visualizations. Write to Bilal Siddika on LinkedIn or via email.

    Speaker(s)

    • Aïchata S. Koné

      CIRANO & GVCdtLab

    • Thierry Warin

      HEC Montréal, CIRANO, GVCdtLab & Digital Data Design (D^3) Institute at Harvard Business School


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